Lost chance for salvation
Due to the emotions that, like an avalanche, have swept the inhabitants of Belarus in recent times in connection with economic events, few people noticed the main thing, few people noticed that the Belarusian economy has lost its last chance of salvation. When the main thing is not noticed by people who have nothing to do with the economy, they can be forgiven. But when the main thing was not noticed by people who, according to the diplomas on higher education in their hands, were simply obliged to notice this, it’s worth thinking about whether it is worth forgiving them at all.
If people with a diploma of higher education, which usually involves at least minimal knowledge of economic theory, immediately realized what happened in the economy, this would help to prevent a lot of negative consequences and now the situation in the country would be much better than we have.
Of course, to avoid what happened would be difficult. For this reason, Belarus has survived, but what can I say, is still experiencing a very strong shock. Because of this shock, people are unhappy and, of course, are looking for a reason for discontent. Knowing the cause is very important, because knowing the cause allows you to fight it. However, instead of trying to figure out the true reason, according to the old peasant habit, people turned their eyes to the “gentleman”, in other words, to the authorities.
Judging by the reaction to the events, it seems logical for the peasant, and Belarusians, deep down in their hearts, to be, it’s quite logical to blame the master, the bosses, for everything. As a result, it was on the gentleman, whose role the government is now playing, that people began to mostly blame. Only the lazy did not do this, as well as the one who understands what really happened.
What is the main thing? The main thing is that the country has probably lost the last chance to build a relatively independent economy, an economy in which at least something will be decided by Belarusian enterprises, not transnational companies. Of course, everyone can think in his own way about what happened the last five years before the crisis, but the reality is that the government was engaged in heating up the economy.
This warm-up was carried out through an economic policy called monetarism. This is a fairly popular tool around the world, and a working tool that really gives results, if the economy responds correctly to it.
For those who are still young and have not studied at the university, as well as for those who went to the university to wipe their pants, it is worth recalling what is the essence of monetarism. According to this macroeconomic theory, the amount of money in the economy is a determining factor in its development.
In other words, the more money in the economy, the greater the demand for goods and services, the greater the demand for goods and services, the faster the economy grows. According to this theory, it is money that is the engine of the economy, and not goods and services, they are the reason. This is a fair statement, because if there is no money, then there is nothing to buy goods and services.
Of course, monetarism should be applied competently. You can’t throw more money into the economy than it can “digest”; in other words, the amount of money should not exceed the growth potential of the economy. If it is assumed that the economy will grow by 10%, then the amount of money thrown into the economy should be approximately the same. As for Belarus, in principle, monetarism was applied quite competently.
In order to prevent inflation, the economy was heated not by Belarusian rubles, but by currency. The government took loans and through a variety of instruments increased their amount of money in the Belarusian economy. The most intensive pumping of the economy with money went through the growth of wages, which did not correspond to real opportunities, i.e. labor productivity growth, he exceeded it.
Due to the growth of wages, solvent demand increased, for which more and more goods and services were required. It became possible to grow the economy due to domestic demand. In general, monetarism yielded results.
However, these fruits were not destined to take advantage, because the Belarusian economy did not understand the steps that the government was taking. The second stage, after an increase in the volume of domestic demand – an increase in the volume of domestic production was overwhelmed, although monetarism was ultimately aimed at increasing the volume of domestic production.
It turned out that in Belarus this is not real. Many people smelled the free money in the air and began to master it, but they did not master it as it should, but simply through the import of goods and services, instead of their production. This was the determining factor, which ultimately led to the crisis.
In fact, the cause of the crisis was the Belarusian peasant mentality, which was characterized by getting everything at once and quickly in order to get out of the mud to riches faster.